THE IPCC’S FALSE EVIDENCE OF MAN-MADE WARMING
One of the most serious problems in the public discussion of global warming is that alarmism has been promoted by essentially false statements from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“Discernible Human Influence" Never Documented
Climate is so complex and variable that it's difficult to distinguish the causes of its variations. The technique adopted by the IPCC for second assessment report, Climate Change 1995, was called "fingerprinting." The IPCC compared the detailed geographic patterns of climate change with the calculations of the climate models. This comparison seemed to indicate a growing correspondence between real-world observation and modeled patterns.
On examination, however, this result proved to be false. The correspondence appeared only for the time interval 1943 to 1970. More recent decades show no such correspondence, nor does the complete record, which dated from 1905 to 1995, The IPCC claim is based on selective data. Under the rules of science, this cancels the IPCC's claim of having found a human impact on climate.
defenders claim that the crucial chapter 8 of the panel's Climate Change 1995 was based on 130 peer-reviewed science studies. Actually, the chapter was based mainly on two research papers by its lead author, Ben Santer, of the
National Laboratory. Neither of the Santer papers had been published at the time the chapter was under review and they had not been subject to peer review. Scientific reviewers subsequently learned that both the Santer papers shared the same defect as the IPCC's chapter 8: Their "linear upward trend" occurs only from 1943 to 1970.
In fact, the IPPC report itself documented the reality that the human-made warming claim was false. The "fingerprint test," as displayed in figure 8.I0b of` the 1995 report, shows the pattern correlation between observations and climate models decreasing during the major surge of surface temperature warming that occurred between 1916 and 1940.
The IPCC's Climate Change 1995 was reviewed by its consulting scientists in late 1995. The "Summary for Policy Makers" was approved in December, and the full report, including chapter 8, was accepted. However, after the printed report appeared in May 1996, the scientific reviewers discovered that major changes had been made "in the back room" after they had signed off on the science chapter's contents. Santer, despite the shortcomings of the scientific evidence, had inserted strong endorsements of man-made warming in chapter 8 (of which he was the IPCC-appointed lead author):
There is evidence of an emerging pattern of climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols ... from the geographical, seasonal and vertical patterns of temperature change. ... These results
point toward a human influence on global climate. 262
The body of statistical evidence in chapter 8, when examined in the context of our physical understanding of the climate system, now points to a discernible human influence on the global climate. 263
Santer also deleted these key statements from the expert-approved chapter 8 draft:
· "None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases."
· "While some of the pattern-base studies discussed here have claimed detection of a significant climate change, no study to date has positively attributed all or part [of the climate change observed] to [man-made] causes. Nor has any study quantified the magnitude of a greenhouse gas effect or aerosol effect in the observed data - an issue of primary relevance to policy makers.”
· "Any claims of positive detection and attribution of significant climate change are likely to remain controversial until uncertainties in the total natural variability of the climate system are reduced."
· "While none of these studies has specifically considered the attribution issue, they often draw some attribution conclusions, for which there is little justification."
· "When will an anthropogenic effect on climate be identified? It is not surprising that the best answer to this question is, `We do not know. "'
Santer single-handedly reversed the "climate science" of the whole IPCC report--and with it the global warming political process. The "discernible human influence" supposedly revealed by the IPCC has been cited thousands of times since in media around the world and has been the "stopper" in millions of debates among nonscientists.
Nature mildly chided the IPCC for redoing chapter 8 to
"ensure that it conformed" to the report's politically correct
Summary for Policymakers.
In an editorial, Nature favored the
The Wall Street
Journal, which did not favor
Oddly enough, a research paper, coauthored by Santer, was published at about the same time--and says something quite different than the IPCC report. It concludes that none of the three estimates of the natural variability of the climate spectrum agrees with the other, and that until this question is resolved, "it will be hard to say, with confidence, that an anthropogenic climate signal has or has not been detected.""'
Why did Santer, a relatively junior scientist, make the unsupported revisions'? We still don't know who directed him to do so, and then approved the changes. But Sir John Houghton, chairman of the IPCC working group, had received a letter from the U.S. State Department dated November 15, 1995. It said:
It is essential that the chapters not be finalized prior
to the completion of the discussions at the IPCC Working
Group I plenary in
The letter was signed by a senior career Foreign Service officer, Day Olin Mount, who was then Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State. The Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs at that time was former Senator Timothy Wirth (D-CO). Wirth was not only an ardent advocate of man-made warming. but was a close political ally of then-President Bill Clinton and then-Vice President Al Gore. There seems little doubt that the letter was sent by Mount at the behest of Wirth.
Mount was later named Ambassador
The Madrid Plenary,
held in November 1995, was a political meeting. There were representatives of ninety-six nations
and fourteen nongovernment
organizations (NGOs). They
went over the text of the “accepted" report line by line. Chapter 8, which
should have governed the entire IPCC report, was rewritten to accord with the global
warming campaign being waged by the United Nations, the NGOs, and the
211 IPCC, Climate Change 1995, Summary for Policymakers. 261 IPCC, Climate Change 2001. 262 IPPC, Climate Change 1995, Chapter 8, 412. 263 IPCC, Climate Change 1995, Chapter 8, 439. 264 F. Seitz, "Major Deception on Global Warming," Wall Street .Journal, 12 June 1996 265 T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, P. D. Jones, R. S. Bradley, and I. R. Briffa, "Estimates of Low-Frequency Natural Variability in Near-Surface Air Temperatures," The Holocene 6 (1996): 96.