This is quality comment by Paul Kelly in today Australian.
“..Australia is put on notice. Deep tremors shake our democracy. Unless they are managed and defused Australia will succumb, in some form or another, to the more virulent revolt against the political status quo that now bedevils both Britain and the US. Seismic shifts rattle the foundations of democracy
The forces of disintegration and disruption in the US and UK are not just public anger and flawed leadership — there are profound cultural and structural shifts at work in Western democracies that are replicated to varying extents in Australia.
They include public distrust in the political system, the demise of confidence in governing institutions, disenchantment with the main political parties, the problems of weak growth and rising inequality — though Australia has limited the damage from these two negatives — a fragmented media market and the moral failure of banks and Wall Street during the global financial crisis.
This has been compounded by the rise of individuality that has shattered the conformity of values that defined the democracies for most of the post-World War II. Cultural conflicts abound over core principles — same-sex marriage, climate change and the rise of Islam. The crisis of masculinity hits hard for older, less educated men troubled in the economy and in personal relations. The risk is an entrenched underclass. Beyond this, there is a decline in social mobility — the test of successful societies — that once enabled the underprivileged to rise to middle-class prosperity in one generation.
There is no greater delusion than for Australia to think it is immune from the British and US tribulations. Brexit and Trump are both causes and symptoms of the problem. This is a crisis of the contemporary liberal society. Because it is multi-faced there is no easy or single solution. Society is being divided two ways — economic winners and stragglers from globalisation; progressives and traditionalists in the battle over cultural changes.
Both the Right and Left — in Australia and elsewhere — are guilty parties. The Right promoted markets and globalisation without sufficient concern for the losers (once again Australia limited the damage on this front); the Left clung to an old-fashioned big government model, and then turned to cultural transformation from the environment to human rights to identity politics.
The idea of The People is being eroded in Western politics. It is surrendering on the Left to the notion of identity — the defining influence is becoming race or religion or sexuality or gender. Identity politics is core to social fragmentation. At the same time the idea of an economically deprived underclass becomes poison to the advance of economic liberalism.
The losers in these battles turn against the status quo. They take flight to anger, alienation or disengagement. Nostalgia enshrines a superior and romantic bygone age. Much of the political divide has a demographic dimension. In Australia, Pauline Hanson is a classic study in channelling multiple alienation — people at risk from economic disruption, resisting cultural changes and the over-50s on the age spectrum.
The lesson from the Australian election is that people won’t be lectured to by policy elites and told what is good for them.
Culture is starting to prevail over the economic imperative, from Brexit to Trump to the Medicare scare. The public is prepared to go populist, go for the best government service delivery and shun the economic experts. It is a dangerous time. The politicians have no option but to relaunch the case for economic reform by enshrining the public dividend at its heart. This was Turnbull’s election omission…”
FULL COLUMN BELOW
Australia is put on notice. Deep tremors shake our democracy. Unless they are managed and defused Australia will succumb, in some form or another, to the more virulent revolt against the political status quo that now bedevils both Britain and the US.
Future Republican candidate Donald Trump demonises his rival Hillary Clinton, “the Secretary of the Status Quo” a lethal branding. After eight years of Barack Obama in the White House, America is more socially and racially divided than when he became President. Trump’s backers say the coming election is “a referendum on the death of white Christian America”.
In Britain the unravelling after the Brexit vote continues apace. Consumer demand is stalling, the pound has hit a 30-year low against the dollar, investment confidence is damaged, property funds are in serious trouble, living standards are sure to fall and Britain’s fate will be a weaker economy with most of the arduous structural adjustments coming down the track. David Cameron leaves No 10 this week with Britain more troubled and divided a country than when he assumed office six years ago. The Economist said the anger that drove Brexit had elements of hostility towards open immigration, globalisation, social liberalism and even feminism.
The key to limiting the harm lies in negotiating arrangements, as far as possible, that minimise the extent of departure from the EU status quo. Meanwhile Brexit champion Boris Johnson is exposed as a clown who was clueless about how to manage the change in national destiny he procured.
The forces of disintegration and disruption in the US and UK are not just public anger and flawed leadership — there are profound cultural and structural shifts at work in Western democracies that are replicated to varying extents in Australia.
They include public distrust in the political system, the demise of confidence in governing institutions, disenchantment with the main political parties, the problems of weak growth and rising inequality — though Australia has limited the damage from these two negatives — a fragmented media market and the moral failure of banks and Wall Street during the global financial crisis.
This has been compounded by the rise of individuality that has shattered the conformity of values that defined the democracies for most of the post-World War II. Cultural conflicts abound over core principles — same-sex marriage, climate change and the rise of Islam. The crisis of masculinity hits hard for older, less educated men troubled in the economy and in personal relations. The risk is an entrenched underclass. Beyond this, there is a decline in social mobility — the test of successful societies — that once enabled the underprivileged to rise to middle-class prosperity in one generation.
There is no greater delusion than for Australia to think it is immune from the British and US tribulations. Brexit and Trump are both causes and symptoms of the problem. This is a crisis of the contemporary liberal society.
Because it is multi-faced there is no easy or single solution. Society is being divided two ways — economic winners and stragglers from globalisation; progressives and traditionalists in the battle over cultural changes.
Both the Right and Left — in Australia and elsewhere — are guilty parties. The Right promoted markets and globalisation without sufficient concern for the losers (once again Australia limited the damage on this front); the Left clung to an old-fashioned big government model, and then turned to cultural transformation from the environment to human rights to identity politics. The idea of The People is being eroded in Western politics. It is surrendering on the Left to the notion of identity — the defining influence is becoming race or religion or sexuality or gender. Identity politics is core to social fragmentation. At the same time the idea of an economically deprived underclass becomes poison to the advance of economic liberalism.
The losers in these battles turn against the status quo. They take flight to anger, alienation or disengagement. Nostalgia enshrines a superior and romantic bygone age. Much of the political divide has a demographic dimension. In Australia, Pauline Hanson is a classic study in channelling multiple alienation — people at risk from economic disruption, resisting cultural changes and the over-50s on the age spectrum.
The post World War II Australian conformity will not return. Society will become only more diverse and pluralistic, marked by contention over values. People will seek greater control over their own lives and make a greater claim on national sovereignty, with border protection being the classic evidence. As Britain’s former Bank of England governor Mervyn King said: “Trust in money can only work if it goes with sovereignty.” His point is the fatal flaw in the eurozone — a currency needs a system of national sovereignty to sustain it. The moral is that economic liberals must create structures that work and are underwritten by public accountability in a national sense.
The lesson from the Australian election is that people won’t be lectured to by policy elites and told what is good for them.
There are three great morals that flow from the current tribulations as played out in different continents. First, a good economy and a good society fit together. The Australian debate is in danger of missing this. Beware false choice; witness, you can have either Medicare or business tax cuts. That’s pure political garbage. Politicians need to sell economic and social policy together as mutual reinforcements.
Second, at this time the politicians must join with the people: they need to listen and be seen to listen. This is perhaps vital to the recent success of Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, who said last weekend that the people’s wishes were “overwhelmingly tactile … You can touch them, you can see them.”
Joyce is a revealing study: liked by the people and bagged by the fourth estate. Joyce reminds that local politics is making a comeback as people focus more on their daily lives. Malcolm Turnbull needs to become a PM for the common man. These days you master this art or lose your job.
Third, culture is starting to prevail over the economic imperative, from Brexit to Trump to the Medicare scare. The public is prepared to go populist, go for the best government service delivery and shun the economic experts. It is a dangerous time. The politicians have no option but to relaunch the case for economic reform by enshrining the public dividend at its heart. This was Turnbull’s election omission.