Select Page
Cherry picking lies and statistics to buttress and sandbag your argument.
“….Nor is there convincing evidence that cyclones have got stronger: “The statistical significance of any observed trend in tropical cyclone intensity is overshadowed by large uncertainties due to the short satellite record and high variability.”
But then the bureau and the CSIRO in State of the Climate go back to torturing statistics to keep
us scared that global warming will end the rain.
Spot the obvious trick in this key passage: “In particular, May-July rainfall has reduced by around 19 per cent since 1970 in the southwest of Australia.
“There has been a decline of around 11 per cent since the mid-1990s in April-October rainfall in the continental southeast.
“Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April-October periods since 1997.”
See the con?
See how the report picks random and inconsistent dates — 1970 and 1997 and “mid 1990s” — as a starting point to track declines in rainfall caused by human emissions?
See how this decline is curiously seen only in patches of the country, and then only in inconsistent periods — “May-July” and “April-October”?
These are classic signs of cherry picking: deliberately looking for some place and period among all the conflicting data to produce the “evidence” you want.
That con is easily exposed.
Just go to the bureau’s website and click on “Climate change and variability” at the bottom of the homepage. You’ll see the bureau actually has rainfall totals for each state and region that go back not just to 1970 or 1997 or the “mid 1990s” but 1900.
Now compare what the State of the Climate report claims with what that complete data shows.
For instance, State of the Climate claims there’s been an “average reduction in rainfall across parts of southern Australia”.
In fact, the complete data shows that rainfall in recent years is around average, and probably higher than it was over the first 45 years of last century, before we got nearly three decades of famously great rains.
Do the same check for southeast Australia.
State of the Climate claims it’s “had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April-October periods since 1997”.
But the bureau’s complete data shows rainfall over the past 10 years seems little lower than it was over the first 45 years of last century…” Warming Is A Sorry State Of Affairs