Select Page

I notice the Climate 200 ‘independent’ running in the electorate of McKellar on Sydney’s Northern Beaches are seriously organised with hundreds of volunteers and their Get Up inspired ground game.

In peak hour, from the fire station (South Narrabeen Surf Club) precinct, all the way to Collaroy Surf Club, a distance of 1.5k, they had supporters with their corflutes smiling and waving every 75 to 100 metres over the entire distance. Must have been at least 100 plus of them.

The seat is blue ribbon Liberal with a margin of +13%

BUT Sitting member Jason Falinski could be in trouble if this poll is to be believed.

Again, IF this poll is to be believed.

Keeping in mind that the poll in the Financial Review was commissioned by Sophie Scamps’ own campaign, (so they get to design and frame the questions) there will no doubt be a significant element of ‘push polling’.

Push polling is where select questions on specific issues are tightly and narrowly focused and  framed in such a way as to elicit a positive response on those issues.

If you don’t ask questions on roads or unemployment for example, you don’t get answers on roads and unemployment.

It’s about controlling the polling (the narrative as it were) to getting the result you want and then feed it out in media releases to the press like the Fin Review..

For example:

 “…climate topped the list of issues most important to Mackellar locals when deciding who they plan to vote for, at 31 per cent. The economy was nominated by 21.3 per cent of respondents, ahead of integrity and trust in politics at 19.9 per cent and the cost of living at 11.3 per cent…”

I call total BS on all of that.

What were the topics and how were the questions pitched? Who were they talking to? School kids or the well heeled Avalon, Palm Beach set?

“..Polling conducted in the Northern Beaches electorate this week shows Dr Scamps with 23.9 per cent of the first preference vote, behind Mr Falinski on 35.2 per cent. In 2019, he won 53.01 per cent of first preferences.


Labor’s Paula Goodman attracts the first preference support of 18 per cent in the poll, up from the ALP’s 16.9 per cent share in 2019.

More than 28 per cent of undecided respondents said they leant to Mr Falinski, with Dr Scamps at 25 per cent…”

So theoretically if you add Scamps to say, 50% of Labor’s vote and then  the 25% of undecided that say they’re leaning her way, her chances on paper at least, seem pregnant with possibilities.